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Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season
Future Start The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC) :Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC) ::Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] 01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC) July Is officially here by UTC, but nothing is out in the Atlantic right now. We still have 10 days to beat Emily '05 for the earliest 5th storm, but that's not looking too likely with the way the Atlantic looks right now. Ryan1000 02:17, July 1, 2016 (UTC) Now it's only 3-4 days away. I don't think this season will beat Emily '05 Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:18, July 7, 2016 (UTC) : It won't. The Atlantic is an unfavorable hellhole for tropical systems currently. Any TC probably won't come until later this month, and it's possible we might be like 2012 and not get anything at all this month. ''St''''eve'' 19:05, July 7, 2016 (UTC) ::Something may pop up at the end of July... let's wait and see what happens. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:08, July 16, 2016 (UTC) 96L.INVEST AOI: African Tropical Wave The GFS model has been very consistent in developing a small, weak tropical cyclone south of Cape Verde in about 6-7 days. The strongest tropical wave of the season is likely to exit the coast of Africa next Tuesday, and this one could develop in the eastern Atlantic MDR before it encounters less favorable conditions in the western MDR (dry air). No NHC mention yet, but it could be mentioned tomorrow or Saturday. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 00:09, July 22, 2016 (UTC) : Hopefully, this becomes Earl. I've been getting tired of the inactivity of the basin this month. Since it will encounter less favorable conditions in the western MDR, this might only be a tropical storm. ''St''''eve'' 19:36, July 22, 2016 (UTC) ::Still no NHC mention. Not much development on the most recent GFS run, but it does appear to be a weak tropical depression or storm. ECMWF not developing anything. I would LOVE to see Earl form from this, but the Atlantic has been so dead this month, I'm not sure if I expect it to happen. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 20:23, July 22, 2016 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Invested and 10/20. Has a shot to be Earl! ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 12:56, July 27, 2016 (UTC) :I'm sort of lenient on this one. I'm not saying that it won't become Earl, but it seems that conditions aren't too favorable. Update: Checked the GFS run. It's showing a small tropical storm in the same potential area as Danielle. The storm I just described is the same storm, so it's probably gonna be a re-Helene 2012. TG 13:11, July 27, 2016 (UTC) ::Nice, finally an AOI in the Atlantic. I hope this can become something. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 14:23, July 27, 2016 (UTC) :::It's up to 30/40 now, it might become Earl down the road as it heads towards the antilles, but that's a long ways ahead. Steve, it's entirely normal for a July to be inactive, even for hyperactive years, because it's not even near the peak of the season. 2004 had no storms until the start of August and we all know how well that year turned out to be, 2012 had a similar start to this year with 4 storms before July, but Ernesto didn't come until August and yet 2012 still turned out to tie for the 3rd most active season ever, this year could too, it just needs some time for storms to get going. Ryan1000 19:00, July 27, 2016 (UTC) ::::Still at 30/40. If this becomes Earl, it looks to be a weak and short lived storm, as conditions will become quite unfavorable by next week. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 02:01, July 28, 2016 (UTC) ::::: Still 30/40. Honestly, I'd almost rather have a tropical depression than a storm, since it looks like if it does develop it would be a name-waster. However, the crazy HWRF model develops 96L into a category 1 hurricane...but that does not make sense given the only marginally favorable conditions. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 12:39, July 28, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Because 96L is behind 97L, I feel the latter would eat away the unfavorable conditions for the former. Nevertheless, I would be delighted to see another tropical storm from either invest, as the Atlantic has endured a rather quiet 30-day period. I also believe the Atlantic is just starting, especially since Colin and Danielle formed rather early in the Gulf of Mexico. Also, for 96L, both chances of formation remain the same. AndrewTalk To Me 19:41, July 28, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Finally, we have something in this basin! But since unfavorable conditions are coming for this system, we might only see an epic failure TS storm. I would like the HWRF model to come true, but that looks unlikely. And Ryan, I already know that, I'm just a bit impatient for new storms :P ''St''''eve'' 21:03, July 28, 2016 (UTC) I'm surprised the chances of development remain 30/40 and there are no signs of organization noted. It looks to be organizing to me, with a large area of deep convection appearing along with spiral cloud lines appearing to lead into a closed circulation on the eastern side of the system. Looks like a TD (albeit sheared) to me, but I also don't work at NHC, so maybe they know something as to why this isn't organizing despite appearances? (Edit: The NHC forecaster who updated the TWO is a very conservative one) ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 01:43, July 29, 2016 (UTC) :96L is starting to look like a TD. Instead of 30/40 I'd put development chances at 70/70. Not sure if it will be Earl, though. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 02:22, July 29, 2016 (UTC) :This system is impressing me. NHC have the experts but right now 96L looks better than Colin and Bonnie. I am not sure how it can be at 30% with the amount of organization it has. It looks like a td right now. I believe this will become Earl and be a 50mph or 60mph storm if current rate of organization continues. This reminds me of Hanna of 2014. Allanjeffs 03:53, July 29, 2016 (UTC) ::Apparently it's having trouble with developing its low-level circulation, and that's probably why its development chances aren't that high yet. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:03, July 29, 2016 (UTC) ::::Indeed, 96L looks worse then last night with clear multiple vortices and the convection farther from the center. Chances of development remain 40/50. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 19:44, July 29, 2016 (UTC) :::::Perhaps the invest is falling victim to the unfavorable Central Atlantic conditions the NHC was acknowledging. It only has a couple more days left to become tropical. AndrewTalk To Me 01:49, July 30, 2016 (UTC) ::::::It's down to 20/20 now, and it looks less organized with no circulation. I highly doubt 96L will develop anymore. However, 97L, the other invest, has a good chance of being Earl next week. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 20:54, July 30, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Now it's down to 10/10. It's not going to develop anymore, so Earl is likely going to come from 97L. ''St''''eve'' 01:10, July 31, 2016 (UTC) August 05L.EARL AOI: Tropical Wave (2) A new AOI has appeared for the tropical wave WNW of 96L. It is at 20/30, and unlike 96L, could develop in the Caribbean and threaten land. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 18:02, July 28, 2016 (UTC) 97L.INVEST invest'd. models dont seem to develop this --'Hurricane ' 18:36, July 28, 2016 (UTC) :Since 97L is ahead of 96L and will probably reach the unfavorable conditions that the NHC mentions in the latter's TWO first, I am not surprised to see that behavior from the models. Regardless, another tropical storm (that preferably becomes a hurricane) would be nice. AndrewTalk To Me 19:43, July 28, 2016 (UTC) :::Yeah, this is probably gonna be to 96L as Agatha was to Blas, a weak storm in front of another one that eats up the unfavorable conditions so the one behind it can develop easier. I don't expect this to develop, but 96L has a decent chance of becoming something down the road. Ryan1000 19:58, July 28, 2016 (UTC) ::::Hopefully that happens. If it does, we might see a stronger Earl than I predict (from 96L) and this might have a small chance to be Fiona or a TD. If Earl became stronger than I predict and this was only a TD, then we could be saved from an epic fail 40-mph name waster in that scenario. The worst thing that could happen is if both invests became 40-45 mph failings as opposed to one of them being stronger. It's cool to see the Atlantic finally starting to heat up again. ''St''''eve'' 21:08, July 28, 2016 (UTC) ::::Steve actually many models are making this a hurricane, the thing it has against it its is foward motion that its too fast. Like Chantal of 2013. Another thing is that if it does not crash into the greater antilles it might become trouble for Mexico if it takes the southern route as there is high oceanic heat in the Caribbean that can sustain a major. The weaker it stays right now the more west it will move and more trouble it might cause. If it crash into the northern antilles it will not amount much and if it takes the northern route the less likely it might become just a strong ts or weak hurricane. Allanjeffs 03:57, July 29, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Allan, there is some dry air from the Saharan Air Layer near the Lesser Antilles right now, and according to Dr. Masters latest blog post the SHIPS model is expecting wind shear to increase near the Lessers over the weekend to around 15-25 knots, so this doesn't look prime to become something big near the Antilles, but if it can survive past that it might become something in or just north of the Caribbean later on. Since this is in front of 96L, conditions for development will likely be more favorable for 96L than they currently are for 97L, it resembles something like Ana and Bill in 2009 in the Atlantic, or Agatha and Blas earlier this month in the EPac. The one in front weakens unfavorable conditions and doesn't become very strong so the one behind it has an easier time developing into something big. It'll be interesting to see what happens. Ryan1000 05:06, July 29, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::97L is currently in unfavorable conditions and is not organizing at the moment, and so chances of development for the next 2 days have been reduced to 10%. However, 97L remains something to watch as 5-day odds remain 30% due to more favorable conditions expected when it reaches the Carribbean. This wave still might have a shot at being a hurricane if models are right. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 19:48, July 29, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::This looks like a potential threat to some areas in the western Caribbean like Mexico, if 97L can survive that far. Fortunately, those regions have escaped from damage these last few hurricane seasons. Regardless, it looks like these worries will only come to fruition if 97L endures through its current environment. AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, July 30, 2016 (UTC) It's up to 30/60 now, and models develop it in the western Caribbean before heading westward into Mexico. This looks likely to be Earl but maybe not until August. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 17:49, July 30, 2016 (UTC) : 97L's thunderstorms are increasing in coverage, but it doesn't have much of a circulation per NHC. (Still pretty impressive given the current conditions) It's seeming quite likely that this will become Earl. Hopefully impacts won't be too severe if it develops and makes landfall. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:52, July 30, 2016 (UTC) :: Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A 18z best track says its in the TD threshold. --'Hurricane ' 19:04, July 30, 2016 (UTC) : 97L continues to look better. I believe it might develop by the middle of next week, but be a potential land threat. It is 30/60 and might be Earl soon. Hopefully it does not do much devastation in the long run, although early August isn't usually the time for strong and devastating hurricanes. ''St''''eve'' 01:13, July 31, 2016 (UTC) ::: Occasionally it can be, like with Allen of 1980 or Diana of 1990. This wave could become something akin to Diana when it eventually reaches the Western Caribbean, though it'll have to slow down quite a bit if it wants to become something noteworthy. Moving at 26-30 mph is awfully fast for an African tropical wave, too fast to develop very much. Chantal of 2013 moved that fast when it formed, and it dissipated shortly after forming. Ryan1000 02:37, July 31, 2016 (UTC) :::: 40/70 now, code red. Hopefully Earl is on the way, but let's hope it's not a destructive storm. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 06:00, July 31, 2016 (UTC) ::::: That's why I said "usually", Ryan. :P It's most likely going to form into Earl this week, but hopefully it's not destructive. Its chances are up to 50/70. ''St''''eve'' 00:44, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::: Amazing, A ship close to PR is recording sustain winds of 45mph. I am pretty sure once the center become better define this will go staight to ts status. From Texas to Nicaragua they need to watch out this system. Its becoming really organize at the moment. Depending on what Ascat reveals this might get to be classified tomorrow morning. Btw models are showing a future Fiona in a similar track but moving NW into Alabama as a major. Things are really heating in the Atlantic. Allanjeffs 01:44, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::: Eh, the latter is forecast a long ways ahead and there's a lot of uncertainty to that. For now, 97L will probably move quickly into Belize and the Mexican mainland later this week as a TS or hurricane, hopefully it doesn't become as bad as Diana '90 though. I knew the Atlantic wasn't going to get much in July as the MJO moved over to the EPac, but as I mentioned before, a dead July means nothing as even hyperactive years can have a dead July but still go on to be very active. Plus, we're already way ahead of schedule in the Atlantic anyways, this year being one of only two seasons to have 4 storms before July, the other of which also had a dead July but still went on to have 19 storms. The EPac isn't letting up on activity either; not only is 9-E poised to become Howard soon, but Ivette could be coming from the new system behind it. This is going to be one very busy August. Ryan1000 02:43, August 1, 2016 (UTC) :::::::: 97L looks great tonight with a convective burst. Here comes Earl, as all of the 3 major models (ECMWF, GFS and CMC) develop this into a tropical cyclone. It is the first tropical cyclone to form in the Caribbean Sea since Barry in June 2013. I feel like this storm is a good indicator that the Caribbean Sea will not be dead in 2016 like it has been in recent years. Earl should be coming sometime in the next 72 hours. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 05:16, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::: 70/80, and the latest TWO says that the system has winds of up to 45 mph. It looks likely Earl could come today, and it seems like it will skip over TD status. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 05:47, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::: Yeah it had the winds already so it will be upgrade directly to Earl like I previously post. Models are also developing the wave leaving Africa into Fiona and making her a major a high end cat 4 in the gulf they also develop Gaston in the Caribbean. This season looks poised to be one to remember as the Caribbean is looking prime for development. Wind shear is the 6th lowest since record began. Someone might have a bad time this season. Allanjeffs 05:51, August 1, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::: 80/90. I have to say, as my time as a tropical cyclone forecaster, I have to say that this is the best-looking open wave I have ever seen. It looks like a tropical cyclone but still lacks a well-defined closed circulation. I'm not sure when this thing will finally close off, hopefully it will close off sometime today. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 13:56, August 1, 2016 (UTC) (←)Yeah Allan, the U.S. may not get another lucky break from major hurricanes this time around, it's been 11 years since we've officially seen one, and conditions for development are quite favorable in the MDR this year. Hopefully there's nothing too severe though, as it only takes one storm to make a year memorable. Ryan1000 14:19, August 1, 2016 (UTC) : I'm amazed this wave is still unable to close off a circulation, as it looks amazing. Before there was good wind data, I bet this would have been called a tropical storm by how it looks. It's already producing 45 mph winds, so I suspect as soon as it gets out of the "death zone" it will become Earl, skipping TD status. Even though this is not currently a tropical cyclone, it can still cause tropical storm level damage, and islands such as Jamaica should be prepared despite the lack of warnings. Open waves producing tropical storm force winds might be more dangerous then tropical storms because of this. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 15:39, August 1, 2016 (UTC) :: I hope that this wave closes off a circulation soon. It is still 80/90 as of the 5 PM (PDT) tropical weather outlook. We should really like to see it be named as soon as possible, as we have been waiting for Earl for over a month now. I agree with your point, Raindrop. Open waves with TS force winds don't have any warnings issued for the areas, while tropical storms do. This is why open waves producing TS force winds might be more destructive and/or deadly than tropical storms. The invest looks really well organized, and even kind of looks like a tropical storm already. It just needs to close off its circulation, which it has been struggling to do today, so it can be Earl. This season has some interesting stuff in store, but I am hoping we don't see a really devastating storm this year by the likes of Katrina, Mitch, Rita, Ike, Wilma, Sandy, etc. It really is possible that the luck streak of a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. could end this year. ''St''''eve'' 00:02, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::: Wow, really 97L? This thing has not developed a closed LLC for so long, I doubt this WILL become Earl, and just dissipate. OK, that probably won't happen, I do still expect Earl by tomorrow, and for it to be a weak to moderate TS(45-55 mph), but right now, I have kinda lowered those chances... [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 01:56, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::: Well 97L have already kill 6 in Dominican Republic with 4 more missing pressumely dead. This make it the worst of the season. Its death toll is higher than all death by the previous 4 storms combine. 97L is to be closing its llc as a huge blow out of convection have just occcur. 97L might be upgrade tomorrow once recon reach reach in the morning.Allanjeffs 03:33, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::: Recon failed to find a closed LLC yesterday, which is why it's not Earl yet. Maybe it'll have one later today. Since it's already producing TS force winds, it'll skip depression stage if it obtains a closed LLC. Ryan1000 05:46, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::: Ryan, Recon never went to the system as they had maintance issues. They are right now going to the system and see if it has a closed LCC. By satellites you can clearly watch the exposed LCC.Allanjeffs 13:13, August 2, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Earl Not confirmed officially at all, but weather radar, microwave data and even visible satellite imagery all show a circulation center on the western edge of the deep convection, so I'll assume advisories will be issued at 1500 UTC with at least 40-knot winds. Also I'm getting too lazy to scroll all the way down to add new comments. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:30, August 2, 2016 (UTC) : If this isn't Earl later today I don't know what NHC is up to. Honestly it should've been upgraded yesterday. Ryan1000 14:08, August 2, 2016 (UTC) : This ISN'T Earl yet. Latest recon is not confident AT ALL. Have a look at this, it seems this is going to be a Failicia or a failed invest after all: :: They've announced now that they will start initiating advisories at noon, finally. TG 15:23, August 2, 2016 (UTC) Mandatory Data... Observation Time: 13:50Z on Tuesday Coordinates: 18.3N 81.0W Location: 72 statute miles (116 km) to the SSE (161°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.). Pressure Altitude: 300 meters (984 feet) Flight Level Wind: From 90° at 17 knots (From the E at ~ 19.5 mph)- The above is a spot wind. - Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems. Flight Level Air Temperature: 26°C (79°F) Flight Level Dew Point: 18°C (64°F) Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds) Turbulence: None Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1013 mb (29.92 inHg), extrapolated Additional Data... Estimated Surface Wind: From 100° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph) 14:21, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::How I feel like right now: (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻ 97L, stop messing yourself up. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:33, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::: Special Message from NHC: First advisory on Tropical Storm EARL will be issued prior to noon. But Earl will be a Failicia + Recon still has east winds, so I cannot say whether it is really tropical or not..... 14:54, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::A Failicia would involve avoiding land, which disqualifies Earl, and it's entirely possible that Earl could strengthen before striking Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:00, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::FINALLY! And if Earl can slow down enough, it's stil possible for it to not be a fail storm... (And west winds were found by the recon, so it's closed) ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 14:57, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::: ::::was about to post that ugh...--'Hurricane ' 14:58, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::And there are east winds again......from recon. From 167° at 29 knots(From the SSE at ~ 33.4 mph) - 14:54:30Z 15:10, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::Well, the advisory is out. 45 mph/1001 mbar. Earl is expected to peak near hurricane strength according to the NHC (65 mph), so I wouldn't rule out hurricane status with Earl. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 16:08, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Earl might be able to crack 75 mph or so before hitting the Yucatan tomorrow, but it won't get stronger than cat 1, if that, before landfall because it's moving WNW at a fairly fast 22 mph. This also means flooding rains probably won't be a huge concern, unlike with slower-moving storms in this area. Nonetheless, there will be some impacts from this in Belize and Mexico so it's not a "fail". Ryan1000 16:16, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::I'll be kinda surprised if Earl reaches C1, due to how fast it is moving and how slow it has been strengthening. I predict a 50-65 mph storm. I give C1 a 20% chance of happening, so it's not out of the question... [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 16:28, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::Earl looks to be strengthening, with increasing convection and even what could be an eye feature, although it's ragged and cloudy. I expect 60 mph by the next advisory if this is a sign of intensification. EDIT: This is in fact a false eye, however Earl still appears to be intensifying. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 21:43, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::: ::::::::::Earl looks poise to rapidly strengthen tonight. I can this see ramp up to cat 2 status before it strike Belize. Effects are going to be primary in Belize but Guatemala, Honduras and Yucatan are going to feel a lot of rain from the system. Btw Earl has slow and its now moving west at 14 mph so more time to intensify.Allanjeffs 22:01, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::This could turn potentially dangerous for the Yucatan if it ends up rapidly intensifying (contrary to the NHC forecast). I give at least a 25% chance of Earl intensifying to a hurricane before striking Belize. This obviously doesn't look like a fail anymore. Its wind speed is up to 50 mph after being 45 mph this morning. I also believe it might have been a TS yesterday, but the NHC just wanted to wait until the recon flight. Anyway, hopefully Belize and surrounding areas prepare themselves. ''St''''eve'' 23:43, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::50 mph. 1002 millibars. I don't really know if it really is an eye. If it is, then Earl might be pulling off a Fay 08 and forming an eye as a TS. Although if the 14 mph forward speeds help at all, hurricane is possible, but I give that anywhere from 20% to 40%...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 23:40, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::PS, Just read raindrop's post, and its not an eye. My mistake. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 23:42, August 2, 2016 (UTC) It's now up to 60 mph/996 mbar, second strongest storm of 2016 season, and it looks like an eyewall may be forming. Come on Earl, become a hurricane! ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 00:01, August 3, 2016 (UTC) : I see that it's approaching hurricane status. Come on, become one! I hope it isn't too devastating in the Yucatan region and Belize though. The name "Earl" deserves to go to a hurricane-strength system! The NHC forecast remains quite conservative though, since it keeps Earl as a TS throughout the rest of the forecast period. ''St''''eve'' 00:32, August 3, 2016 (UTC) ::: Earl may have slowed a bit but it still doesn't have enough time to explode into something big, Harvey of 2011 also formed in this area and didn't become a hurricane, despite being organized and small enough to potentially RI, Earl probably won't either. At best, it could pull an Ernesto '12 and strengthen up to a cat 2 at the last minute, but even that's not likely. In their wind speed probabilities forecast, NHC only indicates a 5% or lower chance it could bring hurricane-force winds to Belize City and surrounding areas tomorrow night. Hopefully that's the case, we don't want Earl to get too strong before it makes landfall, otherwise it could be bad for them. Ryan1000 02:42, August 3, 2016 (UTC) :::: Well, looks like Earl might be looking at Harvey as his role model and he will follow in his footsteps. So i've bumped the chance of Earl cracking C1 down to 10%. Good Earl. UPDATE: Holy cow, Earl is now a 65 mph, 989 mbar SEVERE TROPICAL STORM! NHC expects Earl to hit Belize as a C1 hurricane! Bad Earl! [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 11:57, August 3, 2016 (UTC) :::::: I had the feeling there was something fishy about the NHC only expecting a 5% chance of hurricane-force winds at landfall, but even though it may not get much past cat 1, it's still strong enough to cause impact wherever it hits. Ryan1000 12:17, August 3, 2016 (UTC) :::::::: NHC updated: WINDS AT 70 MPH just estimated/recorded! Earl is stronger than Harvey! [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:20, August 3, 2016 (UTC) :::::::: Earl is causing heavy rain right now in here. Classes have been suspend in 7 departments and a hurricane warning was issue. My country is very prone to flooding so I am a little worried. The bay islands will recieve the brunt of the storm in terms of Honduras impacts.Allanjeffs 12:28, August 3, 2016 (UTC) : Hmmm... Earl's track is somewhat similar to Iris '01, but much weaker compared to Iris. I just hope Belize won't get a Hattie '61/Iris '01 from this storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:55, August 3, 2016 (UTC) ::Earl is showing some signs of a potentially destructive storm. Models are showing its strongest winds right in the Belize City area, and I hope everybody stays safe! Also, Earl is predicted to drop most of its rain near Belize City, parts of extreme Southern Mexico, and Veracruz. TG 13:51, August 3, 2016 (UTC) ::::The pressure rose to 990 from 989 with the newest advisory, interaction with northern Honduras is keeping the intensity in check a little. I'd rule out anything past cat 1 intensity by now. It won't even come close to Iris or Hattie in terms of impacts. Ryan1000 19:56, August 3, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Earl Upgraded to a hurricane, according to NHC! 75 mph, 988 mbar. We have the second hurricane of the season! ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM FIONA FORM! 21:04, August 3, 2016 (UTC) : After 6 months, the Atlantic has another hurricane. However, Earl will hit land soon. Earl's looking pretty good right now, and if Earl could have had more time, we might have seen a major. We'll see how much Earl can strengthen before landfall, and hopefully people are out of the way of what could still be a dangerous storm. Also, if Earl's circulation makes it to the EPAC, Earl could have a much longer lifespan... ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 22:07, August 3, 2016 (UTC) : This is our second hurricane of the season, 6 months after the first, it's not often that you hear that. Unfortunately, Earl has already had impacts. It has caused 6 deaths in the Dominican Republic. Expected landfall is later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Leeboy100Hello! 23:52, August 3, 2016 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances! : Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC) :: Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC) :: Its already here, so I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC) :::Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC) Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions *Alex - '''1%' - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022! *Bonnie - 2% - A persistent storm that made landfall in South Carolina. It didn't cause much damage, but it did cause two deaths. She refused to die, though, as she unexpectedly regenerated. She'll be back in 2022. *Colin - 5% - A disorganized, messy tropical storm that hit Florida, Did not appear to do any significant damage, but did cause 4 deaths. Should be back in 2022, and let's hope he is better looking then. *Danielle - 1% Made landfall in Mexico and caused one death, but one death is usually never enough to warrant retirement. She will return in 2022. ---- Steve's retirement predictions: (Other users can feel free to follow my scale and use my colors) The deaths and damage don't have to combine to form a percentage. For example, Sandy only had a death toll qualifying for 65%, but its damage toll qualified for 100%. The percentage given for the storm is only for the higher side (100% in Sandy's case). If a storm becomes one of the most destructive of all time for a certain area (like Erika 2015), the chance will be bumped up by 40%. For example, Erika's damage and deaths only qualified for 40%, but because it was one of the most destructive storms ever for Dominica, the chance would be bumped up to 80%. 0% = Didn't touch inhibited land; no deaths or damage. 0.01% = Usually touches inhibited land, but causes none to a very insignificant amount of damage. 0 deaths (direct) and 0 indirect deaths (only for land touchers), at maximum 3 indirect deaths (only from offshore hurricanes, usually surfers drowning or similar stuff). 1% = Almost always touches inhibited land, causing minimal damage and no direct deaths. It can cause up to 5 indirect deaths. 5% = Causes from minimal to $20 million in damage, or causes up to 2 direct deaths and up to 7 indirect deaths. 10% = Very minor damage ($20 to $50 million), up to 5 direct deaths or 10 indirect deaths. 15% = Minor damage ($50 to $75 million), up to 10 direct deaths or 15 indirect deaths. 20% = Somewhat minor damage ($75 to $100 million), up to 20 direct deaths or 23 indirect deaths. 25% = Slight damage ($100 to $200 million), up to 25 direct deaths or 30 indirect deaths. 30% = Moderate damage ($200 to $350 million), up to 35 direct or indirect deaths. 35% = Larger damage amount ($350 to $500 million), up to 50 deaths. 40% = Somewhat significant damage ($500 to $750 million), up to 60 deaths. 45% = Large damage toll ($750 to $875 million), up to 75 deaths. 50% = Significant damage ($875 million to $1.5 billion), up to 90 deaths. 55% = Widespread damage ($1.5 to $3 billion), up to 100 deaths. 60% = Massive damage ($3 to $5 billion), up to 200 deaths. 65% = Severe damage ($5 to $7.5 billion), up to 300 deaths. 70% = Extreme damage ($7.5 to $10 billion), up to 400 deaths. 75% = Insane damage ($10 to $15 billion), up to 500 deaths. 80% = Super insane damage ($15 to $20 billion), up to 750 deaths. 85% = Catastrophic devastation ($20 to $25 billion), up to 875 deaths. 90% = Untold devastation ($25 to $35 billion), up to 1000 deaths. 95% = Cataclysmic devastation ($35 to $45 billion), up to 1500 deaths. 99% = Insane cataclysm ($45 to $55 billion), up to 2000 deaths. 100% = Damage toll exceeds $55 billion (like Sandy or Katrina) or death toll is 2000+. (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) *Alex: 1% - Despite its extreme earliness, it didn't do much save for some Azores impacts. *Bonnie: 5% - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. Will almost certainly be back in 2022. *Colin: 10% - 4 deaths give it a tiny shot, but I doubt retirement. *Danielle: 5% - Did not appear to do much, but it did cause a single death. *Earl: ? - Predictions will be released once it dissipates. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC) ---- Raindrop's Retirements I use Steve's retirement colors, so thanks to him. I base my retirement predictions on what kind of stuff has been retired in the past, along with where they happened and how much lasting impact they inflict. Therefore, storms that made landfall and caused a few deaths and some damage get very low chances because NHC never retires storms with those impacts. *Alex: '''0.5%'- A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:31, January 16, 2016 (UTC) *Bonnie: 1%- Despite two direct deaths, minimal damage doesn't get storms retired, and so Bonnie will return in 2022. *Extratropical Low Pressure System Colin: 2%- 4 deaths and minor damage doesn't warrant retirement, and plus Colin barely qualifies as a tropical storm anyway. The 4 dead people may think differently though. *Danielle: 1%- Danielle would have done near nothing if not for the one person who sadly got killed. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:21, July 27, 2016 (UTC) Puffle's retirement predictions (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors) *Alex: 1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go. *Bonnie: 1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022! TG's Retirements (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Credit to Steve820 and Puffle for the retirement colors) *Alex: 1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022. *Bonnie: 5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. TG 20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC) *Colin: 10% - Though was a weak storm at landfall, it did do some damage. I was looking at pictures of the damage it inflicted earlier in Florida/Georgia. Most of the damage in Florida was caused by flooding and high winds. Colin caused four deaths, which still gives a very slim chance of retirement. We'll see him again in 2022. TG 12:45, June 7, 2016 (UTC) *Danielle: 5% - Though we did see the earliest 4th named storm, it caused insignificant damage and 1 fatality. Disorganized Danielle will be back in 2022, and hopefully will be a fish-storm. TG 17:44, June 21, 2016 (UTC) Leeboy's retirements. Eh, why not? I'm bored, and even though I'm usually against starting it this early, we've had 3 storms already. And since Alex formed in January you could technically say we're about halfway through the season by now. So, here we go. (Thanks to Steve for the colors.) *Alex: 1.1%- 'Early and awesome start to the season, but that damage to the Azores was minor so it gets a 1. The extra .1% '''isn't '''due to how early it formed. It's because Alex is one of my personal favorite names and I'm biased. *Bonnie-'''5%:'My Bonnie did a lot of lying over the ocean. Forgive the joke, I couldn't resist :P. Anyways, 2 confirmed deaths due to rip currents, and $600,000 in damages gives this a small chance of retirement. *Colin-'''10%: Damage from flooding was worse than I initially thought. Video was sent to The Weather Channel showing manatees '''swimming in floodwaters in someone's yard. Fortunately still no reports of fatalities. *sigh* unfortunately it did cause four deaths, so once again the percentage is upped slightly. *Danielle- '''5%: '''Minor damage, but unfortunately caused 1 death. Leeboy100Hello! 17:18, June 7, 2016 (UTC) ---- KN2731's storm grades & retirements Grading from A to F (you can guess what they mean). Retirements in multiples of 5. # Alex: grade '''B, retirement 5%. Nice January hurricane that made landfall in the Azores, but he'll be back in 2022. KN2731 (talk) 13:07, June 8, 2016 (UTC) # Bonnie: grade C''', retirement '''10%. Regenerated against the odds. 2 direct deaths, but minimal damage. Retirement chances low. KN2731 (talk) 13:07, June 8, 2016 (UTC) # Colin: grade C''', retirement '''15%. Disappointing, disorganized and decrepit storm. (3"D"s?!) 4 fatalities (1 is presumed) but minimal damage. The waterspouts were cool, but being earliest "C" storm gives it a C. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:44, June 17, 2016 (UTC) # Danielle: grade E''', retirement '''5%. Possible candidate for weakest storm of the season. Unfortunately 1 fatality. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:43, June 23, 2016 (UTC) Post-Season Changes I know it's still kind of early, but the Atlantic is completely dead and there is not much else to talk about in the Atlantic right now. Anyway, the NHC is expected to release Hurricane Alex's tropical cyclone report later this month. Dvorak estimates for the hurricane estimated winds as high as 82.2kt (90-95 mph). I think there's a good chance of Alex's intensity being upgraded to 90 mph, and even a slight shot that Alex will be upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm. The pressure was also likely lower than 979, maybe in the low 970s, which would make Alex the strongest January Atlantic storm on record. We will have to find out in a couple weeks, if not sooner. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 02:04, July 17, 2016 (UTC) :11 days left. I recall from somewhere that the NHC was supposed to finish this in June, but optimistically this delay could mean an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, July 20, 2016 (UTC) ::1 day left, and I hope the NHC releases it tonight. It would be a nice for an otherwise completely inactive July. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, July 31, 2016 (UTC) ::Eric Blake is suppose to be the one writing this report, will see. Allanjeffs 03:36, August 2, 2016 (UTC)